Economic Outlook 2025: A Recap
Posted on 12/11/2025 by Austin Chamber
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Held on Monday, December 8th at the Four Seasons Austin, experts Dr. Ray Perryman and Mark Sprague shared insights on Texas’ economy, workforce, and real estate. Highlights included the importance of education, stable immigration, and workforce training as keys to long-term growth. Population trends, labor market challenges, and the stabilizing housing and commercial real estate markets, were also discussed, while noting that Texas remains well-positioned for continued economic strength through 2026.
Key Drivers of Texas Growth: Insights from Ray Perryman
Dr. Ray Perryman highlighted key factors shaping Texas’ economy and workforce. He noted that current tariffs offer limited long-term benefit, with some delays reducing their impact, and the federal government is providing $12 billion to farmers to offset losses. On demographics and immigration, Perryman emphasized the importance of sensible, stable policies, noting that 1 in 9 Texas workers is undocumented and that removing them would harm the economy.
Regarding technology and workforce, he stressed that AI and new innovations will shift jobs rather than eliminate them, making training and skill development critical. Education remains central: Texas’ young population is its most valuable resource, and successfully educating them is essential for long-term prosperity. Despite current uncertainties, Texas continues to show strong economic performance, with a net gain of 57,000 manufacturing jobs since the pandemic and expectations for significant improvement by mid-2026.
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Stabilizing Markets and Expanding Regions with Mark Sprague
Mark Sprague of Independence Title provided an overview of Texas’ economic and real estate landscape, noting that overall growth remains strong despite Austin’s slower pace due to space constraints, while surrounding areas like Marble Falls are experiencing rapid expansion. He highlighted migration trends, with most new residents coming from other Texas metros, California, and international locations, and projected that DFW will remain the fastest-growing region.
On the labor market, Sprague noted that job creation has slowed due to higher rates, but Texas continues to outperform the U.S., though labor shortages pose challenges and could drive costs up significantly. The housing market is stabilizing after years of rapid growth, with residential prices flattening, mortgage rates expected to remain steady, and rental markets strong due to high retention and low delinquency.
Commercial real estate faces mixed conditions: offices and retail have been hit hardest, with high vacancies and ongoing hybrid work trends, while industrial and logistics sectors remain in strong demand despite potential overbuilding. Sprague also noted that construction activity is picking up, though labor remains the main constraint, and overall, Texas’ economy is positioned for continued growth into 2026.
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